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Slowdown in remittances may impression consumption demand additional: India Ratings

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MUMBAI: Recessionary pressures because of the Covid 19 pandemic and falling oil costs in gulf international locations which have led to job losses and wage cuts globally have impacted remittances into India in a extra structural method and will additional weaken combination consumption demand within the nation, ranking company India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) mentioned in a notice.

Historically, India has been one of many largest receiver of remittances on the earth, nevertheless, the share of remittances as a share of gross disposable revenue receded to 2.5% in FY19 from 3.5% in FY10, indicating the moderation began even earlier than the outbreak of COVID-19.

Remittances are an necessary driver of a clean consumption cycle and international locations with giant dependence on remittances act as a counter cyclical buffer in opposition to a fall in home output. Remittances have a optimistic impression on family financial savings and act as a consumption booster. “Therefore, the pandemic-led slowdown in consumption is likely to get exacerbated by the muted remittance flows,” the Ind-Ra mentioned.

For India, gulf international locations are the biggest supply of remittances, thus oil worth has been recognised as the key driver for quantum of flows. Additionally, geopolitical situations play important position.

“India receives its major remittances from GCC (gulf co-operation council) nations which have stagnated since 2015 due to volatile oil prices in global markets. The economic growth of the region depends heavily on oil prices. The remittances from the region will be further pressured due to COVID-19 related factors coupled with falling oil prices,” Ind-Ra which is an arm of world ranking company Fitch in India mentioned.

According to World Bank, Indian diaspora constitutes near 16 million individuals around the globe, of this, 55% are located in GCC. Furthermore, the remittances from the area represent 54% of the entire remittances to India. According to the financial institution, world remittances are projected to say no by 20% yoy in 2020 because of the financial disaster induced by COVID-19 pandemic.

Remittances additionally buffer in opposition to volatilities of capital flows as it’s a switch of revenue to dwelling vacation spot and therefore extra of a steady supply.

However, NRE deposits haven’t seen a major change regardless of the impression on remittances. NRE account of Federal Bank constitutes 40% of its complete deposits whereas 30% of the entire deposits of South Indian Bank are dependent upon NRI accounts.

“Both the banks have reported a rise in their NRE accounts and NRI accounts respectively. The major cause behind the heightened deposits, despite falling remittances, are more savings amid COVID-19 crisis along with favourable interest rates. The banks have proved a stable deposit ratio like during the previous crisis such the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The banks will be able to manage this risk with stable deposit growth coupled with muted credit offtake. However, in case the inflows continue to slacken, increased withdrawals will heighten risks,” Ind-Ra mentioned.


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